- Why show these measurable data elements.
- Recommendation (to S.B.& Town Mgr.) to include these statistics in the Jericho Annual Town Meeting Report.
- Grand List Number of units
- Building Permits Issued by year
- Density per unit
- Residential building types estimates
- Housing Stats
- Relationship between growth (new development) and the property tax rate
- FOR DISCUSSION - Further analysis and critique of possible town tax burden impacts of new development. See line item 2.3 under the heading Building Permits Issued.
- Grand List categorized by acreage and # of parcels
- Agricultural Land (Work in progress)
- Geography (Area: land, water)
- Acres Conserved
- Area of land suitable for housing development (TBD)
- Water Capacity (TBD)
- Population (historical and current)
- School Enrollment, capacity, (the basis for enrollment projections)
- Biodiversity of Jericho
- Optional statistics recommended for listing
- Resources utilized for this report
- Town Maps
Given the changing dynamics of the Jericho town plan, and the community interest in reshaping how Jericho, Vermont is in part, developed, conserved preserved, and modified, the measurable numbers below (and those yet to be ferreted out) might be of interest.
Thus I recommend these elements be reported each year in the town Annual Report as a sort of "State of the Union Address for Jericho, Vermont". I believe these are relevant historical and current elements that can help us recognize trends, and changes and where we are headed; improve our ability to see both the trees and the forest in our town plan and discussions therein.
The History of Jericho Vermont Vol III 2013 refers to a quote by Don Galusha in the 1930s, "Some day Jericho will be a suburb of Burlington." The book goes on to say, "In 1964, the Jericho planning board stated, "Recent factors which will complicate the development of our community are the proposed new union high school, the completion of the Montpelier-Burlington section of the throughway, and the influence of the IBM expansion. They also noted, "the trend for families to move to rural areas..."
In recognition and response to these changing conditions, zoning ordinances (1961), and planning positions were created, (1965), and a town comprehensive plan was developed (1968).
Now, in 2023, with global warming and climate change, a growing gap in wealth attainment, and housing shortages as well as ever more rare open land in surrounding towns, I wonder what Jericho will look like in fifty years. Will land development be viewed through a long-term lens and as a communal recipe?
Are we viewing the tip of an iceberg of undeveloped and Agricultural land that is melting away before we recognize the extent and consider the long-term implications? "When in crisis mode we tend to lose sight of the long term; we can act now, and act strategically". SJ Dube, Jericho Housing Committee Chair.
What are the fundamental land use values of the Jericho community? How will we balance the needs, wants, and desires against the natural resources we have to steward for this generation and those to come?
As farmed food becomes more nutrient deficient* and supply struggles to meet demand, how will the capacity to grow local nutrient-rich foods factor into our land management decisions? *Large-scale, industrial agriculture can deplete crops of essential vitamins and minerals that our bodies need to thrive.
Transition Town Jericho will ask for support at the Town Meeting for this resolution: We the citizens of Jericho propose the formation of Jericho as a vital Food Hub for the citizens of its towns and environs. A Food Hub Commission will be established to increase food self-sufficiency via the production, manufacture, and distribution of local food.
Note: Bernie produced this report based on his research (see the sources at the end of this post). Please email Bernie with any corrections and sources of the correction. TY
"State of the Union Report for Jericho, Vermont"
1) Number of units on the Grand List: 2,157 parcels
Households: 1,975 (1,761 owners, 214 renters)
The average increase in Housing Stock: 0.54% (VT 0.60%)
Median Home Sale Price: $429,750 (about $583k in the first half of 2022). Increased 71% over the last two years. In 2018 the median sale price in Jericho was $332k.
Median Gross Rent: $1,040
- 200-300 acres: (12)
- 100-199 acres: (25)
- 50-99 acres: (32)
- 1-49 acres: (1960)
- 300 to 367 (3)
- 201 to 300 (7)
- 151 to 200 (7)
- 100 to 150 (18)
- 78 to 100 acres (11)
- 50 to 75 acres (22)
- 25 to 49 acres (45)
- 11 to 25 acres (134)
- 10 to 10.9 acres (163)
- Less than 10 acres (1744)
- 0 acres: (128)
2.) Building permits issued
Recommendation: Show in graph or chart form, the total number of units added annually for the previous year and for the past 30 years.
The number of Building Permits Units: Total, Single-Family, Multi-Family buildings.
Total 1,007 since 1980.
- 2023
- (An 8 to 17 home development application for Gov Peck/Browns Trace is currently on the DRB docket as of Jan 17, 2023.)
- A request to the DRB by Don & Bonnie Morin for a sketch review for the redevelopment of 37 River Road into a possible 8-lot subdivision with existing structures. The property is located at 37 River Road which is in the Rural Village Center District CD 4 Character Based Zoning District.
- A request by Marjorie B Hunt Living Trust, Martha Prince for a final plat review for a proposed two-lot residential subdivision. The property is located at the Orr Road extension which is in the Village Zoning District.
- 2022 (~12)
- 2021 (18) SFB 10, MFB 8
- 2020 (18) SFB 18
- 2019 (18) SFB 18
- 2018 (7) SFB 7
- 2017 (7) SFB 7
- 2016 (7) SFB 7
- 2015 (7) SFB 7
- 2014 (13) SFB 13
- 2013 (12) SFB 12
- 2012 (8) SFB 8
- 2011 (7) SFB 7
- 2010 (5) SFB 5
- 2009 (2) SFB 2
- 2008 (10) SFB 10
- 2007 (17) SFB 9, MFB 8
- 2006 (22) SFB 22
- 2005 (17) SFB 15, MFB 2
- 2004 (22) SFB 12, MFB 10
- 2003 (14) SFB 14
- 2002 (21) SFB 21
- 2001 (14) SFB 14
- 2000 (19) SFB 19
- 1999 (29) SFB 29
- 1998 (24) SFB 22, MFB 2
- 1997 (16) SFB 16
- 1996 (13) SFB 13
- 1995 (30) SFB 30
- 1994 (31) SFB 31
- 1993 (54) SFB 46, MFB 8
- 1992 (47) SFB 32, MFB 15
- 1991 (36) SFB 36
- 1990 (30) SFB 23, MFB 7
- 1989 (22) SFB 15, MFB 7
- 1988 (45) SFB 43, MFB 2
- 1987 (26) SFB 26
- 1986 (83) SFB 71, MFB 12
- 1985 (67) SFB 42, MFB 25
- 1984 (40) SFB 40
- 1983 (27) SFB 27
- 1982 (27) SFB 27
- 1981 (29) SFB 29
- 1980 (34) SFB 34
- (Source for Developments built shown below: The History of Jericho VT Vol III)
- 2004 Tyler Place (25 homes).
- 1997 Rogers Farm development on Route 117, the southern part of town, with about 20 homes.
- Mid-1990s Outlook Vista Estates on former Bourgois farm (Packard rd), and Westin Development (Plains rd).
- 1980-1992* Sunwood (Packard rd). (70 homes including single-family, duplexes, and some townhouses).
- *You have Sunwood listed as 1990. Our Sunwood home was built end of 1985/beginning of 1986 and there were houses in Sunwood that were 5 years older than ours, so I believe the development started closer to 1980. - Anonymous
- 1992 Valley Edge on former Wheeler farm near the eastern end of Raceway.
- 1980s Alpine Estates, Creekside (former Fay farm in Riverside part of town), Mansfield Estate, Ayers Drive & Kettle Creek (near Jericho Center), Gabaree Lane, Cedar Circle, White Farm Meadow, Twin Meadow, Matts Meadow in the Jericho Corners section of town.
- 1971 - 1980* Foothills off of the Raceway (Former Jeter farm)
- *The Foothills began in the 1960s not the 1980s and the source is an invitation to the first model home which is still in our former milkhouse. The Bishop family started the Foothills and built it until they moved in the late 1960s. They lived in the house we now live in. - Catherine Stevens
- 1975-1987 Jericho East, and commercial development along rt 15 (former Carpenter farm).
- 1976 Plains & Skunk Hollow (11 lots)
- 1970s Pinehurst Dr (corner of Rte 15 and Packard rd).
- 1960s Skyview Drive (off Lee River road) and Sunny View Acres. Mountain View, and Lawerence Heights (on part of Ramon Lawrence farm).
- 1950s Lafayette Drive (on a loop off Lee River Road) (~25 homes)
Year | All Buildings | Total Blgs Counting MFB as single units | Population | Approx. Density - People per unit |
2022 | 12 | 2100 | ||
2021 | 18 | 2088 | 5082 | 2.43 |
2020 | 18 | 2070 | 5075 | 2.45 |
2019 | 18 | 2052 | 4994 | 2.43 |
2018 | 7 | 2034 | 5037 | 2.48 |
2017 | 7 | 2027 | 5064 | 2.50 |
2016 | 7 | 2020 | 5046 | 2.50 |
2015 | 7 | 2013 | 5070 | 2.52 |
2014 | 13 | 2006 | 5029 | 2.51 |
2013 | 12 | 1993 | 5027 | 2.52 |
2012 | 8 | 1981 | 5019 | 2.53 |
2011 | 7 | 1973 | 5032 | 2.55 |
Year | SF Buildings only | Tot Bldgs SF ONLY | Population | Approx. Density - People per unit |
2022 | 12 | 1989 |
| |
2021 | 10 | 1977 | 5082 | 2.57 |
2020 | 18 | 1967 | 5075 | 2.58 |
2019 | 18 | 1949 | 4994 | 2.56 |
2018 | 7 | 1931 | 5037 | 2.61 |
2017 | 7 | 1924 | 5064 | 2.63 |
2016 | 7 | 1917 | 5046 | 2.63 |
2015 | 7 | 1910 | 5070 | 2.65 |
2014 | 13 | 1903 | 5029 | 2.64 |
2013 | 12 | 1890 | 5027 | 2.66 |
2012 | 8 | 1878 | 5019 | 2.67 |
2011 | 7 | 1870 | 5032 | 2.69 |
2.2). 2019 Data: Residential Building type estimates
- Single-Family detached 1,727
- Single-Family attached. 123
- Multifamily building (2 units) 40
- Multifamily building (3-4 units) 10
- Multifamily building (5-9 units) 59
- Multifamily building (10-19 units) 10
- Mobile Home 83
Total 2,052
2.3) Housing Stats (From Jericho Housing Committee 2/14/2023)
- 16% of Jericho's residential buildings are something other than single-family, detached (in fact, 8 units in multi-family buildings in 2021 were permitted to build).
- 20% of Jericho's occupied housing units are small (2 or fewer bedrooms)
- 11% of Jericho's housing is rental... a rate that has not changed in over 4 decades. [Note that to stay at 11% over the years, the number of rental housing continued to increase].
2.4.) Relationship between growth (new development) and property tax rate.
Questions for community discussion.
What is the best use of the land: Housing, Economy, Infrastructure, or environment? (Poised by Susan at 2/7 P.C. mtg).
What is the delta or difference between the revenue and expense side of new development?
How does one measure at what point new development drives town costs above the revenue the housing or commercial development brings in, resulting in an increased tax burden?
What is the dynamic of growth rates with respect to demand for services and infrastructure? Let me propose a starting point for discussion purposes; Let's assume that rural landowners extract $0.65 per dollar of taxes paid and urban/developed parcels require over $1.25 in municipal services in return for their tax dollars.
If this is so, is this complex dynamic due to lax control of growth rates with respect to demand for services and infrastructure?
Post Script: From a commentary in VT Digger by John Bossange. "“Carrying capacity” includes the impact of growth on schools, police, fire, public works, parks, intersections and traffic control, and many other essential services — like the ability to maintain adequate wastewater treatment and stormwater systems, provide enough fresh, clean drinking water, and enough expanded fossil fuel gas and electrical grids."
Chuck Lacy advised that the State Education Tax on Jericho residents is affected by the number of students enrolled at MMU and the income of residents in the town. [Lower enrollments and higher incomes = likely higher education taxes].
2.5) Tax burden discussion
- What do newly developed parcels require in municipal services in return for their tax dollars? Can and is this measured by the development review board review of applications? Commercial as well as residential.
- Postulate: The difference between rural and urban demand on tax revenue is largely explained by the increase in expectations of suburban residents outstripping the increase in revenue from taxing their bigger houses. Wealthy people from urban areas may be more likely to want paved streets and other amenities that are hard to afford at lower population densities and lower median incomes.
- Preserve open land by limiting sprawl. Option for consideration: Have all new development be connected to municipal wastewater treatment and municipal water supply. Individual septic systems and wells are inefficient and facilitate people being scattered across the landscape.
- If the goal is to keep property taxes affordable, and address the climate crisis, encourage multi-family, multi-story residential development close to services. How? In part, not minimum lot sizes and single-family occupancy, but instead, set maximum lot sizes and graduated tax rates inversely proportional to occupancy. Perhaps a tax rebate based on occupancy. Encouraging if not rewarding housemates, co-housing, multi-family units, and energy-efficient housing (the larger the house, the greater volume/surface ratio).
- What research can we utilize to assist in this analysis?
- Related topic - Does land conservation raise property taxes? Read research results from New England cities and towns @ https://farmlandinfo.org/publications/land-conservation-and-property-taxes-in-vermont/
- Related topic - Land Use: The Star Guiding Conservation
3.) Acreage by Grand List Category.
Category Acres - (Parcels) Real Value from G.L.
- Commercial 669 (62) $90,811,300 (11.3%)
- Commercial Apts 7 (2) $1,139,700 (0.1%)
- Misc* and other 4,571 (144) $21,189,000 (2.6%)
- Misc (Firing Range) 5,074 (1) $27,324,700. (3.4%)
- Mobile Home LA 96 (16) $3,087,500. (0.4%)
- Other mostly condos 7 (119) $30,342,200. (3.8%)
- Residential <6 acres 2,247 (1,413) $448,298,100 (55.7%)
- Residential >6 acres. 8,073 (383) $164,572,300 (20.4%)
- Farm (Working farm) 974 (5) $3,693,100. (0.5%)
- Utilities, Other 3 (12) $15,046,900. (1.9%)
- TOTAL 21, 721 (2,157) $805,504,800 (100%)
Note: *acreage and other misc types.
- Housing Deficit Data and Demographic Trends Presentation 12/15/23 by VT Dept of Labor. (Slides)
- Webinar recording
4.) Number of acres of Agricultural land*
Agricultural and open spaces are a central part of Jericho's identity.
AG land - a small piece of pie broken up into many slices and facing orders from many customers with varying usage appetites.
*I am still working to figure out how to ferret out the acreage numbers from the town map.
- 3a) Number of acres of undeveloped AG land (To be determined)
- 3b) Number of acres of partially developed AG land (TBD)
- Examples: cemetery and elementary school on RTE 15.
- 3c) Number of acres of Ag land currently being used for Agricultural purposes (To be determined)
- 3d) Number of acres of Ag land that are conserved (To be determined)
- 3e) Farms operating in Jericho 1960s about 55 farms; by 2013 (2), 2022(2).
- Do we want to preserve some of the remaining land designated as Agricultural soils?
- How can we best preserve the limited amount of Agricultural soil land that is left in Jericho for growing food either now or in the future?
- Set aside (town) land for communal food production in patches of land to support groups of households. (suggested by Christa, Settlers Farm)
- Transition Town Jericho will ask for support at the Town Meeting for this resolution: We the citizens of Jericho propose the formation of Jericho as a vital Food Hub for the citizens of its towns and environs. A Food Hub Commission will be established to increase food self-sufficiency via the production, manufacture, and distribution of local food.
- What are the barriers keeping you from accessing local food as much as you would like to?
- Do you value knowing how are growing and processing your food?
- Transition Town Jericho Food Hub 1-30-23 A discussion ahead of Town Meeting Day (March 7), when Jericho votes on establishing a Food Commission to explore and hopefully develop a local/regional food hub.
4b) Geography (Source Wikipedia)
| Area | |
|---|---|
| • Total | 35.6 sq mi (92.1 km2) |
| • Land | 35.4 sq mi (91.7 km2) |
| • Water | 0.2 sq mi (0.4 km2) |
Note: The portion of the Firing Range that is in Jericho is 5,074 acres or 7.92 sq miles.
5.) Acres Conserved: Number of acres in Jericho that are officially conserved as of the previous year.
- Of the 17,700 acres of Jericho that exclude the Firing Range, 3,013 acres, or 17% of available land, is conserved from future development.
- Municipal 326 acres
- State 969 acres
- Private 1,718
5b) List the public areas conserved, by title and acreage. (Mobbs (278), Riverside park, Privately owned, Research Forest (500 acres), Land trust owned, Old Mill Park (12 acres?) , Kikas Valley Farm (361 acres)...
6) Estimated Acres of land in Jericho suitable for housing development.____ for ___ acre plots and ___ for ___ acre plots. To be determined.
Conservation history (from The History of Jericho Vol. III)
- 1990s? Old Mill Park (12 acres) JULT to WVPD
- 1999-2000 Mills Riverside Park (216 acres)
- 2000 Private land Conservation Easement Donation (JULT)
- 2003 Wolfrun Natural Area (280 acres) JULT
- 2009 The Gateway (123 acres added to the Wolfrun Natural Area) JULT
- 2005 Kikas Valley Farm 280 acre donation, and other Land donations to JULT
- 200?? Kikas Valley Farm, additional 10 and 71-acre donations. Now, 361 acres total. JULT
- 2010 Barber Farm, 148 acres conserved.
7) Estimated Water Capacity (number of housing units that can be supported) based on wells as a source of water compared to the number of units currently relying on well water. To be determined.
RECOMMENDATION: Creating a drought monitoring system for Jericho. Create a hazard mitigation plan for droughts.
From the current town plan: Development in this area (Jericho Center) should be mindful of impacts on groundwater quality and availability and of existing historic features such as the Village Green.
From a UVM Study for Underhill (Relevant to Jericho)
Drought
Short-term droughts are expected to be more prevalent as temperatures increase, and precipitation comes in heavy downpours, reducing the opportunity for ground penetrations.
Many private wells that depend on groundwater recharge
No hazard mitigation plan for droughts
Recommend creating a drought monitoring system
Recommend activating a communication mechanism to spread information about wells drying up, a crowdsourced drought map (for VT)
Suggest we look at NH and MA recommendations for strategies
6b) Include a statement from the Chief of the Fire Dept. regarding water supply for firefighting. Pending
Notes: Up until 1983 the town used a reservoir for water throughout the village. Then in 1983 upgrades were approved, consisting of five wells. In 1992 Champlain Water District water flowed through Jericho pipes.
Currently, the Jericho-Underhill Water District provides drinking water and fire hydrant access to 326+ residential and business connections representing about 900 people within the District. Many if not most of the town residents rely on individual homesite wells for water today.
8) Population (2021 American Community Survey)
- Total: 2021 (5,082) (28th out of 277 cities in VT) Median age 48.6.
- (1.7% or 86) of Jericho, families live in poverty.
- At least one source cites the poverty level at around 4.5%
- 2022 ( TBD )
- *2021 (5,082) *(slight variation in numbers depending on source of data)
- *2020 (5.075) *(slight variation in numbers depending on source of data)
- 2019 (4,994)
- 2018 (5,037)
- 2017 (5,064)
- 2016 (5,046)
- 2015 (5,070)
- 2014 (5,029)
- 2013 (5,027)
- 2012 (5,019)
- 2011 (5,032)
- 2000 (5,015) Numbers from here up are from American Community Survey
- 1990 (4,302) Numbers here down are from Wikipedia.
- 1980 (3,575)
- 1970 (2,342)
- 1960 (1,425)
- 1950 (1,135)
- 1940 (1,077)
- 1930 (1,091)
- 1920 (1,138)
- 1910 (1,307)
- 1900 (1,373)
- 1890 (1,461)
- 1880 (1,687)
- 1870 (1,757)
- 1860 (1,669)
- 1850 (1,837)
- 1840 (1,684)
- 1830 (1,654)
- 1820 (1,219)
- 1810 (1,185)
- 1800 ( 728)
- 1790 ( 381)
- Over 18: To be determined
- Under 18: To be determined
- 65 and older: To be determined.
7b) Population Projections: 5 years out, 10 years out, 15 years out, 20 years out. To be determined.
Total projections:
By School-age categories
9) School Enrollment
- 2023-24 (2,329)
- 2022-23 (2,349)
- 2021-22 (2,366)
- 2020-21 (2,331)
- 2019-20 (2,363)
9b) School Capacity -
Source: John R. Alberghini, Ed.D. Superintendent, Mt. Mansfield Unified Union School District (MMUUSD)
Predicting beyond 2023-24 is not exact, because we do not know all preschool eligible students, families move in and out and a smaller percentage of 3 olds take part in private and public preschool. A prediction would be a rough estimate with qualifiers and likely less than students who actually enroll.
VT schools and MMUUSD have expanded programs and services such as preschool, social work, counseling support, and alternative programs over the past decade. However, like VT as a whole, MMUUSD has experienced a decrease in K-12 enrollment over the past several years. I can share some of our enrollment trends. Please see below:
10.) Biodiversity of Jericho, Vermont
- Number of Jericho observations loaded on iNaturalist: 24,799
- Number of Species observed: 2,387 (11th place among VT cities, and towns)
Habitat restoration and protection means life or death, even species' existence or extinction.
11) I suggest the following as optional but worthy of consideration for listing in the town annual report.
- Pounds of road salt that was used during the year.
- Commercial, retail establishments, and churches in Jericho by category. Including restaurants, other food-related, florists, manufacturing, retail, plant nursery/landscaping, contractors, wood-related, stables, B&Bs, libraries, ....)
- Artists, musicians...
- Prominent or Outstanding happenings Examples: Major weather events, and large complex installations like the solar array.
- Jericho Town Map Viewer
- Jericho Town Website
- Natural Resources Overalay District Map
- Zoning Map
- Book: The History of Jericho Vermont Vo III 2013
- MMU School District reports and here
- 2021 Town Annual Report
- Article about the UVM report to Underhill on Climate Recommendations
- UVM Report to Underhill on Climate Recommendations
- Vermont Demographics
- Jericho town documents including the Grand List
- Act 250 Criteria 9(B) Primary Agricultural Soils
- Vermont Farmland Classification
- Jericho zoning permits listing
- Vermont Land Records. com (Jericho Town Clerk's Recorded Land Records Search)
- Housing Data.org
- Residential Building type estimates
- Building Permits
- Year Structure Built
- Primary Heating Fuel
- Owners, Renters
- Households by number of people
- Primary Home Sales (graph)
- Year-to-date Primary Home Sales (bar chart)
- Home Price affordability calculator
- Homeowner cost burden
- Rental Housing costs (various charts and graphs)
- Housing Needs (various data, text)
- World Population Review
- Wikipedia
- Jericho Housing Needs Summary (Jericho Affordable Housing Committee)
- Is the tiny little neighborhood the city of the future? The Guardian
- Jericho e911 map
You have Sunwood listed as 1990. Our Sunwood home was built end of 1985/beginning of 1986 and there were houses in Sunwood that were 5 years older than ours, so I believe the development started closer to 1980.
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